The Florentine residential market is heading towards a slow stabilization both in terms of prices and the number of sales concluded. It cannot be said that the end of the recessive cycle has been reached, but the signals of stabilization are starting to appear, in line with the national scenario sketched by the most recent investigation conducted by the economic studies company, Nomisma. At the national level, 2013 should close with a total of 407,000 sales, equaling a flection of 8.3% as compared to 2012’s -26%; meanwhile, in the country’s thirteen principal cities the variation was of -5.6%, with an improvement on record in the second quarter.
As for the Tuscan capital, Nomisma underscores, 2012’s drastic drop in sales is slowing to halt and, in addition, there are two positive indicators that emerged in the second half of the year: the reduction in time to sale and the stabilization of the discounts applied to sale prices. These elements indicate the progressive attenuation of the distance between offer and demand, even if this tendency is not yet pronounced enough to bring transactions back to satisfactory levels. Regardless, sale times in Florence decreased to 8.5 months, and renting times settled at 3.4 months, like in the first part of the year. And the prices are settling as well, with the average discount at 15.5%.
The Tuscan capital still gives signals of difficulty for offices and commercial spaces. For offices, the sale times increase to 11 months and the average discount on prices reaches a new peak at 17%. The flection for lease prices is instead less severe than during the first semester. The recession continues for commercial spaces, despite the fact that the price drop decreased from -3.3% in the first semester to -1.6% in the second. Lease prices are stable. The warehouse and industrial structure markets are, instead, starting to smile – according to data from the Observatory on Real Estate Market – due to signs of recovery. Finally, the potential profits from leasing a property are stable, settling at a yearly 6.6%.
“Despite the fact that the sales recovery is slow to take off – according to the Nomisma analysis of national data – there are some signs of recovery: the stabilization of sections of the market components, such as the offer and demand of houses, the interruption of the flection in house rental agreements, the slow but predictable market shift towards renting and a less bleak outlook in the most appreciated markets in the cities are all evidence of an improvement in the economic outlook.” Still at the national level, the sale times for second-hand properties is stable at 8.4 months, whereas the times stretched a little for offices and commercial spaces, to 10.8 and 10.1 months, respectively. Prices dropped in the second semester: 2% for new homes, 2.2% for resales, 2.3% for offices and 1.9% for commercial spaces; and the average discount rate applied to sales aligned with the first semester, registered at 16.5% for resales, 11.5% for new homes, 17.7% for offices and 17.4% for commercial spaces.
The situation is better on the corporate front: Italy’s incidence on continental investments rises to 2.3% in 2013 from 1.4% in 2012 and, according to the Nomisma Observatory, the domestic market recorded a growth trend. At the end of 2013 – the notice reads – the volume of real estate transactions should reach 3.3 billion Euros, nearly double the investments realized last year. Additionally, the weight of foreign investments also increased, reaching 73% of the market.